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Posted Tuesday, February 2, 2010 @ 12:36pm
Today and Tomorrow Upper level disturbance over the area will move out of the region today. High pressure is expected to settle in, with some clearing of clouds tonight and tomorrow. Expecting cooler temps tomorrow with northerly flow in full force. Thursday Watching two disturbances digging out troughs over the western part of the continent. One is progged to be over Colorado and another over northern Mexico. Meanwhile at home, we'll see a continuation of temps from today and tomorrow. Clouds are expected to stream back in ahead of this storm system. Friday Ingredients coming together for a potent winter storm over our portion of the country. There is pretty good overall agreement between this mornings models with some differences. The Colorado disturbance is expected to continue eastward while the Mexico one will lift north as its trough goes into a negative tilt. These two are expected to phase over our region. Surface low is expected to develop in the gulf states region and lift northward into the Ohio Valley before transferring to a coastal low in the Atlantic. Models not quite agreeing yet on the track of this storm, timing, and timing of transfer to a coastal low. All of these factors will determine exactly who gets what and how much. Current indications are a rain/snow mix will develop across Indiana Friday afternoon before temps crash and changes over to snow Friday evening. The next day or so of model runs may shift around some more before they begin to lock in on a solution. So stay tuned to @mesoweather for the latest on this developing storm. Posted Thursday, November 5, 2009 @ 3:51pm
Today and tomorrow... High pressure and dry air over the region both days will keep the skies sunny through the rest of the work week. Near normal temps are expected and nothing else exciting to report on this period. Saturday... Zonal flow is expected to set up across most of the country on Saturday. A few more clouds may be around in association with a very weak disturbance over the Great Lakes. High pressure to our southeast will bring in southerly flow at the surface and temps in the lower 60s are expected. Sunday... A new disturbance is progged to be sliding in across the northern Rockies. A weak trough across the central US will form. Southeast ridge will strengthen in response... and moisture should start streaming north. Some isentropic lift across the region will bring an increase in clouds, however, no precipitation is expected. Upper 60s to near 70 will be possible during the day. Monday... Much of the same story as Sunday to start out the day on Monday. Some clouds will be in place with warm temps across the region. Low pressure is expected to develop and move across the upper Great Lakes. A cold front may slide south and begin to impact the area Monday night, bringing a few showers. Colorado Front Range forecast... Today through Saturday... Zonal flow will in place aloft for this period. Scattered orographic clouds coming off the mountains will keep the urban corridor partly sunny. Some downsloping winds are expected to kick in keeping things on the breezy and warm side. Sunday... Cold front is expected to slide through on Sunday. Temperatures will fall for the second part of the weekend. Weak upslope flow, combined with the approaching trough will bring mostly cloudy conditions. I have kept showers out of the forecast for now as moisture appears a bit weak. Monday... High pressure will help clear the skies out some on Monday. Temperatures should be more seasonable, in the mid 50s. Posted Monday, October 26, 2009 @ 8:52pm
** Focus on this forecast will the potential wind storm and severe storms on Friday Today... Clouds associated with a warm conveyor belt of moisture streaming northward will stick around tonight. A few scattered showers are possible between LAF and ORD but no widespread rain or heavy rain is expected. Tomorrow... Weak trough over Texas embedded in a larger scale trough over the western US will lift northward tomorrow. While the models have trended weaker with the surface low that is expected to form, widespread rain showers are expected across the region by tomorrow evening and overnight. Greatest lift is expected to be across eastern IN... and this will be where the heaviest of the rain is expected. Wednesday... Subsidence will set in on Wednesday and will clear out the skies. Sunny and dry conditions can be expected. Colorado Front Range forecast Thursday... Very potent trough will be approaching our area on Thursday. We will still be under the influence of subsidence during the day so mostly sunny skies can be expected. Temperatures 20 to 25 degrees above normal are still expected. Subsidence will end Thursday night as upper flow begins to ramp up ahead of the trough. Clouds will start to work into the area ahead of a line of showers and thunderstorms that are expected to develop ahead of an approaching cold front. While the exact timing will need to be worked out as we get closer, I think the front will be approaching the Indiana border by daybreak on Friday. Friday... First concern of this forecast period will be the synoptic winds ahead of the cold front. Very impressive wind field being shown on the GFS. While I don't have enough confidence to put this detail in the forecast, here's what I'm thinking. Soundings showing the potential for 45 to 50 mph gusts across the area during the morning. If any instability can be realized... such as if the front holds off long enough for some daytime heating... there will be the potential for severe thunderstorms. With the strong forcing and front... and incredibly high winds aloft... widespread damaging winds could become a threat. This will have to be monitored in the coming days. After the front passes... strong winds aloft may continue to mix down... bringing 45 to 50 mph gusts down through Saturday. If current model indications pan out... we could be looking at our first big wind storm for the season... and potential severe storms. Colorado Front Range forecast... ** Focus will be on the significant winter storm to affect the region beginning tomorrow night Today... Mostly clear conditions should continue tonight Tomorrow... Large trough over the west will begin sliding down over our region tomorrow. As low pressure develops over the southern rockies, expect the winds to start to become favorable for upslope showers along the foothills as a cold front from the north approaches. Moisture isn't expected to be too impressive just yet so don't expect anything heavy during the day. Temperatures will also be plenty warm for the precip to be just rain in the urban areas. Cold front is expecting to be sliding south and crossing over into Colorado by evening. Once the front passes, temperatures will begin to rapidly fall across the region. Upslope showers will also kick in full force with more moisture working in. The rain showers should quickly change over to all snow... and then the snow may become heavy at times. It looks like an axis of stronger forcing will set up from Boulder to SE of Cheyenne. Upslope snow showers should be coming down the urban corridor... from Ft Collins to Denver metro during the overnight hours. Wednesday... Surface low pressure will deepen over New Mexico. Upper low will deepen and get closer to the region... deformation band is expected to set up over the urban corridor and arc back into Nebraska. Moisture is expected to increase significantly in the plains... combined with strong upward velocities am expecting heavy snow to develop. Upper low will eventually move east of the area... bringing the band of deformation snows out of Colorado. The band of heavy snow will begin to pull out of the urban corridor overnight and slide over the eastern plains of CO. Thursday... Band of snow may still be ongoing on Thursday across the eastern plains but will move out during the day. Snow will taper off Thursday evening as the surface low moves over the upper Midwest and the upper low scoots out. A stiff north wind will develop across the plains and drifting and blowing snow could become an issue Thursday. Here is my first call for snowfall totals across the region: http://www.mesoweather.com/images/10282009.png Friday... Sun should return for the end of the week. But with heavy snowfall across the region don't expect the temps will rise just too much. |
